Projecting Climate Change to the End of the Century

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With grant funding from the Greenbelt Foundation, the Ontario Climate Consortium (OCC) partnered with Durham Region in 2019 to develop updated regional climate modeling projections to the end of the century.

Understanding current and future climate changes will help this growing region adapt and plan, as well as support the continued implementation of the Durham Community Climate Adaptation Plan (2016).

What Will Durham’s Climate Look Like in 2100?

Based on the updated climate modeling results, Durham region is expected to experience:

  • Warmer air temperatures
  • More extreme heat days with temperatures above 30°C
  • Less extreme cold days below -20°C
  • Increasing precipitation, particularly during the winter and spring seasons
  • More extreme weather events, especially intense storms
  • Longer growing season with the increased risk of pests

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By the end of the 21st century Durham region is expected to by five degrees Celsius leading to more variable and extreme weather
Warming temperatures, increasing precipitation and more extreme weather events are all expected to increase in Durham Region through the end of the century under the current pace of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

What Do These Climate Change Trends Mean?

These changes in climate may have a significant impact within Durham region, including threats to public health and safety, natural systems, infrastructure, agriculture, economy, and services.

Examples include:

1. More precipitation could result in increased contaminated stormwater runoff from the surrounding landscape. These contaminants can degrade water quality, impacting aquatic ecosystem health and drinking water supplies.

runoff into Lake Ontario following an extreme rainfall event
An increase in contaminants can degrade water quality, impacting aquatic ecosystem health and drinking water supplies.

2. More annual precipitation and extreme weather events could result in increased risk of flooding, posing threats to infrastructure such as roads, buildings, and residential basements.

flooded picnic area following an extreme rainfall event
An increased risk of flooding in our water systems is also related to warmer winter temperatures, due to earlier snowmelt, rain on snow events, and a decrease in ice cover (though lake-effect snow may increase).

3. Warmer temperatures, combined with changing precipitation patterns may create more favourable conditions for vector-borne diseases such as West Nile Virus and Lyme Disease.

TRCA team member conducts West Nile virus larval surveillance and monitoring
Learn more about TRCA’s West Nile Virus Larval Surveillance and Monitoring Program.

4. As temperatures rise during spring and fall, the length of the growing season will increase.

rising temperatures resulting from climate change may increase the length of the growing season in Durham region
The benefits of a longer growing season in Durham Region may be outweighed by an increase in the spread of invasive species, pests, and diseases affecting crops, more variable and intense precipitation, and wilder weather. More agricultural production would also mean increased inputs of pesticides and runoff of excess nutrients, like phosphorus, to waterways.

5. With projected increases in extreme heat days, the Toronto region may experience a greater demand for cooling and shade.

heat haze and smog looms over suburban Toronto during summer heat wave
Increases in extreme heat days may result in greater use of air conditioning during summer months, causing a strain on the electrical supply and possible power outages. Extreme heat can also lead to health-related conditions (such as dehydration and heat stroke), and cardiovascular and respiratory diseases may increase. This is particularly concerning for vulnerable groups, such as seniors, children, those with pre-existing conditions, and those who spend long hours outdoors.

Next Steps: Science in Action

Later this year, the OCC, in collaboration with Durham Region and the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments (GLISA), will translate the technical climate modeling results into a series of two training workshops for regional staff and stakeholders. These workshops will help build capacity for understanding and applying climate data and information to aid human health and natural systems adaptation.

Beyond Durham Region, TRCA has developed climate projections its entire jurisdiction, as well as Ganaraska Region and Niagara Region.

EXPLORE FUTURE CLIMATE TRENDS FOR TORONTO & REGION

Information on how municipalities and Conservation Authorities can undertake their own climate modeling studies is outlined in this Guidance Document for Ontario Municipalities, Conservation Authorities and Broader Community on Developing Local Climate Projections.

Regional climate change projections can also be accessed via TRCA’s Open Data Portal or Durham Region’s Open Data Portal. Climate projections should continue to be updated every five or ten years to ensure that the trends are based on the best available climate science and information.

What Can You Do to Help?

Climate change affects all of us, and everyone can play a role in reducing its impacts. Learn more about the actions you can take to help conserve our climate.

Through scientific data collection, TRCA tells the stories about the changes affecting the natural areas and watercourses within our regions. For more information, please visit our Monitoring webpage or explore our YouTube playlist.