Weather systems are extremely complex and difficult to predict. Many factors can result in lesser precipitation than expected, including: redirection of an anticipated storm away from our area, dissipation of rainfall before the storm reaches our area, false readings on radar data due to ‘noise’ within the data, and even overprediction by the numerical weather models due to the complexity of weather systems.
Nevertheless, we rely on the best information available to forecast the potential for flooding within our jurisdiction. This includes information from a variety of climatology sources and we are also in direct contact with Environment Canada meteorologists during an event to receive the latest updates.
At the TRCA, Flood Duty Officers have to make decisions based on the data currently available and past experience with similar storm systems. These decisions have to be made in a timely manner in order to provide adequate notice to our member municipalities, school boards and the public. If in doubt, we err on the side of caution.