Flood Forecasting & Warning Centre

Welcome to TRCA’s Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre. The FFW program consists of daily operations by on-call Flood Duty Officers and also the maintenance of flood control infrastructure (including flood control dams and an extensive gauge network). Please click on the links to see highlights of the many initiatives being undertaken by the TRCA Flood Forecasting and Warning program.

Click here for more information on flooding and safety

Watershed Conditions Statement: Flood Outlook

Flood Outlook and Shoreline Hazard Warning in effect until July 19, 2019


July 5, 2019


1:00 PM

Issued To:

School boards, Municipalities, Local Conservation Authority, Local Police, Emergency services and media

Weather Conditions:

The International Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River Board is reporting that water levels are expected to continue their slow decline in the coming weeks, and the rate of decline will be highly dependent on rainfall. Lake Ontario water levels have been slowly lowering since the end of June due to the drier conditions and the continuation of record high outflows from the lake. Water levels will remain near the seasonal highs for at least the next few weeks and will take months to recede back down to normal seasonal levels. More information from the International Lake Ontario – St Lawrence River board can be found here: https://ijc.org/en/loslrb and https://ijc.org/en/loslrb/watershed/forecasts The daily average water level for Lake Ontario as of July 12th is 75.83m (IGLD 1985 Datum) at Fisheries and Oceans Canada’s tidal observation station at Toronto, which is lower than water level peaks of this year and 2017. The shoreline hazard warning will be continued and in effect while the static water level remains above 75.5m.


At the current lake level any high winds from any direction can result in significant wave action and lake surge, as well as exacerbate erosion and flooding impacts that may overtop berms and sandbags, resulting in temporary ponding. Additionally, high water levels in Lake Ontario can result in reduced capacity of streams at river mouths during heavy rainfall events and thunderstorms. Due to the high Lake Ontario water levels, impacts such as shortened beaches, land and infrastructure erosion, trail/boardwalk closures, localized ponding and flooding, are continuing to occur throughout shoreline areas in TRCA’s jurisdiction. Even when water levels do start to recede, risks will continue during times of heavy wind or wave activity, which have been occurring more frequently this year. Please note that TRCA’s Notice of Caution for the Scarborough Bluffs is still in effect due to the ongoing potential for landslides. Please contact your local municipality 311 line for updated information on park and beach operations status. Waterfront properties are encouraged to take protective measures against the high water levels and wave action to minimize impacts.


TRCA is stressing public safety while lake water levels remain high for this prolonged event. Stay away from areas that are currently experiencing flooding and erosion and obey all trail closure notices. Boardwalks and other pathways along Lake Ontario’s waterfront are dangerous due to the high water levels combined with wind, surge and wave action. Please exercise caution around all Lake Ontario shoreline areas and water bodies. Alert any children under your care of these dangers and supervise their activities. If you are in danger, call 911 immediately. This message pertains to Lake Ontario water levels in the TRCA jurisdiction only. This Lake Ontario Shoreline Hazard Warning will be in effect while the lake level remains above 75.5m and until cancelled or updated.

For more information please contact the on-call Flood Duty Officer.

Flood Duty Officer

Rita Lucero


Chief Flood Duty Officer

Eric Wang

Note: A Lake Ontario Shoreline Hazard Warning is a notice that critical high water levels and waves are imminent and/or occurring, which could result in shoreline flooding and/or erosion. Exercise caution around all Lake Ontario shoreline areas.

Note: A Lake Ontario Shoreline Hazard Warning is a notice that critical high water level and waves are imminent and/or occurring, which could result in shoreline flooding and/or erosion. Exercise caution around all Lake Ontario Shoreline areas.

PDF Version - TRCA - Continuation of Lake Ontario Shoreline Hazard Warning until cancelled or updated