Flood Forecasting & Warning Centre

Welcome to TRCA’s Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre. The FFW program consists of daily operations by on-call Flood Duty Officers and also the maintenance of flood control infrastructure (including flood control dams and an extensive gauge network). Please click on the links to see highlights of the many initiatives being undertaken by the TRCA Flood Forecasting and Warning program.

Click here for more information on flooding and safety

Shoreline Hazard Warning is in effect

Shoreline Hazard Warning in effect until May 24, 2019


May 16, 2019


9:00 AM

Issued To:

School boards, Municipalities, Local Conservation Authority, Local Police, Emergency services and media

Weather Conditions:

The International Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River Board is still forecasting that water levels for Lake Ontario are expected to continue rising, although less rapidly, until late May or mid-June. With continued recording breaking inflows from Lake Erie as well as received rainfall and reduced outflows due to ongoing flood risk in the Lower St. Lawrence River, water levels in Lake Ontario will continue to rise in the coming weeks. As of May 16th, the current Lake Ontario average water level is 75.74 m (IGLD 1985 Datum) at Fisheries and Oceans Canada’s tidal observation station at Toronto. For reference, this water level is 19cm below the maximum observed daily water level during the entire Lake Ontario event in 2017 (75.93m). Given these conditions, it is reasonable to expect similar Lake Ontario water levels that were experienced in 2017. Whether or not the 2017 levels will be exceeded this year, will depend on precipitation in the coming weeks. Once peaked, water levels in Lake Ontario will then take several weeks to recede back down to normal levels.


Impacts to shoreline areas, such as shortened beaches, erosion, trail/boardwalk closures, localized ponding and flooding, have been observed at, but not limited to, the following locations; Budapest Park/Sunnyside Beach, Marilyn Bell Park, HTO Park, Harbour Square Park, Sugar Beach, Gibraltar Point (Toronto Island), Woodbine Beach, Ashbridge’s Bay Park, Kew and Balmy Beaches, Bluffer’s Park, Scarborough Bluffs, along the Doris McCarthy Trail and Guildwood Park shoreline, Port Union near Highland Creek mouth, Rouge Beach Park, Frenchman’s Bay shoreline areas, Rotary Park (Ajax) and Paradise Park Beach. TRCA has issued a notice of caution specifically for the Scarborough Bluffs due to the potential for landslides. Other waterfront properties, including Toronto Islands, which experienced flooding and erosion during the 2017 event could continue to experience impacts as the water level in Lake Ontario continues to rise. Additionally, wave action from southwesterly or easterly wind directions could exacerbate erosion and flooding impacts.


Please exercise caution around all Lake Ontario shoreline areas, and avoid areas that are flooded or are experiencing erosion. Boardwalks and other trails along Lake Ontario can be dangerous during times of high waves. Please obey all trail closure notices. Please alert any children under your care of these dangers and supervise their activities. Please contact your local municipality for information on park and beach operations. This message pertains to Lake Ontario water levels in the TRCA jurisdiction only. This Lake Ontario Shoreline Hazard Warning will be in effect until cancelled or updated. To report shoreline flooding, please leave a message on TRCA's floodline listed below. If you are in danger, call 911 immediately.

For more information please contact the on-call Flood Duty Officer.

Flood Duty Officer

Christina Bright


Chief Flood Duty Officer

Dan Hipple

Note: A Lake Ontario Shoreline Hazard Warning is a notice that critical high water levels and waves are imminent and/or occurring, which could result in shoreline flooding and/or erosion. Exercise caution around all Lake Ontario shoreline areas.

PDF Version - TRCA - Lake Ontario Shoreline Hazard Warning continued for May 16, 2019 until updated or cancelled